Think that he’ll put states like New York into play for the Republicans, if he gets the nomination? Fat chance. Here are five summer polls that show la Clinton trouncing Giuliani by double-digits in the Empire State–by up to 25 percentage points. Normally early polls don’t mean much, but it’s fair to say that most New Yorkers have a pretty good idea of who Giuliani is and who Clinton is, and which of the two they’d rather support.
In other liberal states we find similar results: Hillary up 10 points over Giuliani in Illinois; up 20 in Massachusetts, where Mitt Romney fares even worse against her: a Survey USA poll of Mitt’s home state has her beating him by 29 points there.
Presidential elections are always the most polarizing, so even in generic terms one would expect most of the blue states to remain blue and most of the reds to remain red. Giuliani’s social liberalism and reputation in his home state don’t change that picture, and Giuliani fares little better than any other Republican in those states. Remember, Republicans, Giuliani chose not to run for the senate in 2000 in large part because he calculated that he could not beat Hillary.
Other recent polls show Democrats picking up a little steam in battleground states like Missouri and a whole lot of momentum in once Republican Ohio (where Edwards actually fares best in match-ups against Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney). If the Democrats can hold on to what Kerry won in 2004, just picking up just Ohio will put them over the top in ’08. For the GOP, the outlook is grim.
The silver lining is that the GOP has needed a thorough housecleaning–more like an Augean-stables-cleaning–for a long time now, and maybe after an ’08 catastrophe we’ll get one. Then again, Hillary and a Democratic House and Senate will be probably be repulsive enough to large swathes of the American public to make any alternative, no matter how shabby, pretty attractive. The worst thing about the Clinton years within the GOP was all the cover that anti-Clinton posturing gave to the crooks and neocons we’ve since had to live under in the Bush years. Eugh.