On a Limb

Larry Sabato thinks the Dems will take both houses, and helpfully provides a seat-by-seat breakdown.

Robert Novak predicts the GOP loses 19 seats in the House but keep the Senate. My American Conservative colleague Jim Antle sees House Republicans losing 25 seats but agrees that they’ll hold onto the Senate, though maybe only through the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Cheney.

You want some random guesswork from me? Ok, here are some absolutely final revised predictions:

Senate: Webb beats Allen. Talent beats McCaskill. Tester beats Burns. Whitehouse beats Chaffee. Corker beats Ford. Cardin wins in Maryland, DeWine loses in Ohio. Dems fall one seat short of picking up the Senate.

House: Just a random smattering, then the verdict — Pombo loses in California; Shays goes down in CT, but Nancy Johnson survives; Giffords storms to victory in AZ against Randy Graf (I sort of know Giffords, and although her politics aren’t mine, she’s one of the very few political people I know who doesn’t come off as if she’s trying to sell me a used car. I’m happy to see her win); JD Hayworth loses in AZ; Hostettler loses in Indiana’s Bloody Eighth; Tom Reynolds survives in NY; Heather Wilson loses in NM; Tim Mahoney beats Joe Negron for Mark Foley’s seat in FL but doesn’t last long; Lampson wins DeLay’s old seat in TX; Sestak defeats Curt Weldon in PA. Democrats underperform somewhat and pick up only about 20 seats overall. Moderately entertaining leadership battles, for both parties, ensue.

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2 thoughts on “On a Limb

  1. Tim November 7, 2006 / 8:43 am

    This guy has gone out even further on a limb and predicted that the GOP will retain control of both houses.

    His arguments can sound a little rude.

    “So what makes us so confident? Dr. Johnson once wrote that “a second marriage is the triumph of hope over experience.” The same is true when you watch a fourth election in which observers believe that the American public is finally going to come around and make rational choices, rather than the same proto-primate choices they’ve been making over and over again. Hope says that Americans will finally wake up; experience proves that the American public sides whichever brute picks up the biggest stick and bashes it hardest on the ground. And that brute has been, is, and will be the Republican Party…”

    Despite the rude delivery he discusses the failure of the opinion polls to predict the result over the last decade or so and, suggests, mobile phone and increased unwillingness to talk to strangers (perhaps due to the proliferation of tele-marketing) have undermined the reliability and credibility of polls. Also he suggests popular discontent with the Iraq War is shallower than generally believed. The public are not outraged by the invasion, the failure to find WMDs, the civilian casualties or even US military casualties. It’s now just a bad news story and people are sick of hearing about it on TV. They are as likely to blame the Democrats for this as the GOP.

    We can only hope events prove him incorrect, but just to be on the safe side I am going to buy some earplugs so I won’t have to listen to the whining from disappointed liberals.

  2. Daniel McCarthy November 7, 2006 / 8:09 pm

    Thanks, I hadn’t seen Mark Ames’s column. He has a point…

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