The Washington Post has an update on the declining fortunes of the House Republicans:
Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of a political newsletter, now has 42 Republican districts, including [Virginia Republican Thelma] Drake's, on his list of competitive races. Last September, he had 26 competitive GOP districts, and Drake's wasn't on the list. "That's a pretty significant increase," he said. "The national atmospherics are making long shots suddenly less long."
The Dems need a net pickup of 15 seats to take back the House.
A few places have speculated on what happens if the Democrats take control this year with a slim majority. Does the GOP stage a comeback in 2008, perhaps with John McCain at the head of the ticket? My guess is that, in fact, no: despite his ongoing reinvention as a more conventional Republican, McCain's appeal to voters in 2008 will, I think, still be distinct from his party's. He would likely win on the strength of crossover voters, who will not necessarily be voting for GOP congressmen. I suspect as well — again, his reinvention notwithstanding — that there'll be enough ticked-off conservatives irritated by a McCain nomination that a demoralized base could also harm Republicans in '08 House races.