More House Races Becoming Competitive

The Washington Post has an update on the declining fortunes of the House Republicans:

Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of a political newsletter, now has 42 Republican districts, including [Virginia Republican Thelma] Drake's, on his list of competitive races. Last September, he had 26 competitive GOP districts, and Drake's wasn't on the list. "That's a pretty significant increase," he said. "The national atmospherics are making long shots suddenly less long."

The Dems need a net pickup of 15 seats to take back the House.

A few places have speculated on what happens if the Democrats take control this year with a slim majority. Does the GOP stage a comeback in 2008, perhaps with John McCain at the head of the ticket? My guess is that, in fact, no: despite his ongoing reinvention as a more conventional Republican, McCain's appeal to voters in 2008 will, I think, still be distinct from his party's. He would likely win on the strength of crossover voters, who will not necessarily be voting for GOP congressmen. I suspect as well — again, his reinvention notwithstanding — that there'll be enough ticked-off conservatives irritated by a McCain nomination that a demoralized base could also harm Republicans in '08 House races.

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One thought on “More House Races Becoming Competitive

  1. Brian Rapp May 21, 2006 / 12:36 am

    I still think they’re going to need Condi to win in 2008. I can’t think of any other “visible” Republipansy capable of winning. They’re not going to vote in Jeb Bush, but knowing what the Democraps might pull out of the donkey’s ass, anything is possible. More important for the Democraps though will be having a presidential candidate who will at least promise to bring the troops home, unless Bush does that first. Stay tuned…..

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